What makes this even more interesting is that in our recent Linkedin poll we found that only 5% of those polled invested in bonds versus 56% investing in stocks and mutual funds. @Marko: You and I choose different investments, but I agree that this new information shouldn't be a reason to choose a new asset mix. This has been a week of IT fixes for me. The last time was in 1861, leading into the Civil War, when the U.S was moving from farm to factory, according to Siegel, author of the 1994 book “Stocks for the Long Run,” in a telephone interview Oct. 25. Also notice that the only negative years for stocks during any of the 80 rolling 10-year periods are 1938 through 1940, which reflect the lingering impact of the Great Depression.
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Some people look at these numbers and assume it disproves the idea that stocks are good long-term investments. Regardless, I will keep my portfolio of bond,prefs and high dividend ETF's the same for the foreseeable future. Interestingly, BlackRock's five-year forecasts for U.S. stocks and bonds were more pessimistic than its 10-year and longer-term forecasts, suggesting that … @Richard: That could contribute, but even junk bond rates would have to go negative to have interest rates fall by as much as they did from 1982 to 2011.
“The generation-long outperformance of bonds over stocks has been the biggest investment theme that everyone has just gotten plain wrong,” Bianco said in an Oct. 26 telephone interview. Over the next decade, expects stocks to outperform bonds and deliver average annualized returns of 6%, according to a long-term forecast published by Goldman Sachs on Monday. (Updates size and scope in second paragraph.). The bond market posted its first 30-year gain over the stock market in more than a century during the period ended Sept. 30. All trading carries risk. The expectations of defaults don't appear to be high now. What the bears failed to anticipate was that Americans would continue to pare debt and boost savings. A 20% weighting in stocks and an 80% weighing in bonds has provided an average annual return of 6.6%, with the worst year -10.1%. U.S. bonds beat stocks over the 30 years ending in 2011, and it happened many times in the 1800s according to retired professor Edward McQuarrie at Santa Clara University. T-bills produced positive returns in all 85 calendar years, while T-bonds gained in 69 of the 85 years (81%) and stocks rose in … Since February Treasuries have rallied 7.99 percent and the currency has gained 3.2 percent, beating 14 of its 16 most actively traded peers, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch indexes and data compiled by Bloomberg. Taleb, author of “The Black Swan” and a principal at Universa Investments LP, said at a conference in Moscow on Feb. 3 that the “first thing” investors should avoid is Treasuries. Last month, policy makers said they would replace $400 billion of short-term debt with longer-term Treasuries in an effort to contain borrowing costs. “As a portfolio manager who has been in the business 30 years, it’s hard to come to terms where interest rates are, but you have to come to terms with it,” Mark MacQueen, who oversees bond investments at Austin, Texas-based Sage Advisory Services Ltd., which manages $9.5 billion, said in an Oct. 26 telephone interview. At the end of March 2009, it was bonds 8.79% and stocks 8.71% for the preceding 40-year annual returns. Until the launch of Learnbonds.com in late 2011 there was no single site on the internet catering exclusively to the individual bond investor. For bonds, prices and yields move in opposite directions, and at the beginning of 2000, the yields on both 10- and 30-year Treasuries were about 6.5 percent.
This is the maddening nature of risk.
Whitney said on the CBS’s “60 Minutes” in December that there would be “hundreds of billions of dollars” of municipal defaults this year. “If you missed the rally in bonds, well, then that’s it.”, Gross eliminated Treasuries from the Total Return Fund in February and owned derivative bets against the debt in March. Concerns about inflation have also abated. What the bears failed to anticipate was that Americans would continue to pare debt and boost savings. An Appreciation For the Bull Market in Long-Term Bonds. The concept of Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW) for retirement spending is simple enough: you look up your age in a table that shows wha... Sharp-eyed readers might have noticed that I removed ads from my blog. Stocks had risen more than bonds over every 30-year period from 1861, according to Jeremy Siegel, a finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in Philadelphia, until the period ending in Sept 30.
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